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  • 2019-06-28 14:38:59  已同步 【华为家事】
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    6月27日,华为公共及政府事务部总裁陈黎芳在美国《洛杉矶时报》发表了题为《数字世界的高墙建不起来》的署名文章。在文中,陈黎芳表示:

     

    · 尽管美国政府的禁令的确对华为造成了一定的影响,但华为的日常运营基本一切正常,华为对客户的承诺也仍然没有变。然而,禁令却可能带来一系列更恶劣的影响,比如损害广大美国企业的切身利益、破坏国际贸易体系等等。

     

    · 禁令虽然给全球ICT产业带来了阵痛,但并不会最终分裂数字世界。从美国内部来看,禁令将会面临越来越大的来自商界的阻力;在国际上来看,其它国家也会逐渐丧失耐心并独立选择自己的路径。再则,认为特朗普的禁令违背了技术发展和历史演进的基本规律,自由贸易和开放市场的原则最终会胜出,数字高墙建不起来。

     

    时间:2019年6月27日

    链接:https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-chen-huawei-blacklist-trump-supply-chain-20190627-story.html

     

     

    2019年小巴展期间,人们正在参观华为展厅。6月26日摄于上海新国际博览中心。(图:Hector Retmal/法新社/盖帝图像)

     

    就在全球庆祝半个世纪以来信息科技进步的同一周,特朗普总统签发了一项行政命令,似乎希望能遏制科技进步的脚步。该行政命令于5月中旬颁布,禁止领先的科技创新公司华为参与美国的数字网络建设。与此同时,商务部也采取行动禁止美国公司向我们出售零部件。

     

    美国的左右开攻对总部位于中国深圳的华为来说的确是个挑战。因为我们的产品中约三分之一的零部件来自美国。有些人开始担心,华为是否能够在这场危机中生存下来,以及华为是否能够继续履行对客户的承诺。

     

    答案是肯定的。华为非常重视供应连续性,为各种紧急情况下的供应进行了长达十几年的制度建设与关键技术开发。华为供应链是一个开放体系,关键部件采购是多路径、多来源,可以从多个国家采购。现在我们日常工作一切照旧,并没有方寸大乱。

     

    虽然针对的是华为,但是美国的做法也会对其自身造成相当大的影响。美国政府针对华为的行动将重伤美国公司的切身利益。这些公司去年一年向华为销售了价值100多亿美元的产品和服务。把华为列入黑名单这一举动可以将这些交易抹去。由此带来的收入降低将很可能迫使美国公司削减研发费用,从而削弱他们的创新能力。

     

    特朗普政府的行动还可能将数字世界分裂成不同的封地或部落。真若如此,相互冲突或不兼容的标准将使得公司无法使用来自全球任何地方的数字化技术。这一障碍将让它们降级成为地区性企业。而在那些因政治原因而将领先的技术公司拒之门外的市场,它们的竞争力将会削弱,成本也会上升,从而导致企业降低投资。因此,这类市场的总体创新力也会降低,它们的公司生产的产品质量会下降但价格会上升。

     

    不过,最糟糕的影响可能还是这种行为将重创全球自由贸易体系。在过去的70年中,自由贸易和开放市场创造了巨大的繁荣和相对的和平。然而,现任政府的行为似乎认为国际贸易应该由政府法令控制,市场规则被束之高阁。

     

    华盛顿辩解称之所以采取行动针对中国科技公司,是因为这些公司对美国的国家安全或外交政策利益造成了威胁。但试图通过将几家公司放入黑名单的方式来保护通信网络的做法是天真的。全球供应链意味着那些有着犯罪意图和具备相应技能的人/机构可以攻破任何国家或任何公司的设备。保障数字网络的安全需要国际社会协同应对,而特朗普政府的行动似乎无法达成这一目标。

     

    美国政府的行为显然会给国际ICT产业带来阵痛,但我仍坚信数字世界不会因此就一分为二。在美国国内,这种自上而下决策形成的行政禁令终将因自下而上的民意——美国商业群体的意志——而破产。比如,行业组织已经开始游说美国政府结束华为禁令,大量科技公司也正在寻求豁免。美国企业和民众承受的损失越大,执行禁令阻力就会越大。

     

    在国际上,特朗普政府的禁令将损害美国长久以来作为全球领导者的国家信用。特朗普反复无常的表态也模糊了政治动机和国家安全考量之间的界限。其他国家不愿意因跟随美国而付出技术落后的代价。因此,部分国家(包括英国)已经选择独立制定验证华为安全与否的机制。这么做也让英国成为首批部署5G网络的国家。

     

    历史告诉我们,违背开放市场和自由贸易原则的行为一般都会对经济体起到削弱作用。前面几代无线通信技术(2G、3G、4G)都饱受不同标准带来的困扰,不仅让人与人之间的通信成本高昂,而且导致全球不同市场无法采用同一制式。

     

    相反,5G有着统一的标准——它是技术演进和市场需求发展的自然结果。当然,部分政客可能会对手中的权力自信满满,总是试图建造一道道的高墙来将合作、开放和进步拒之门外。但回过头看,就会发现,数字高墙建起来快,坍塌也快。

     

    The world was marking half a century of information technological progress the week President Trump signed an executive order seemingly designed to halt that progress in its tracks. Issued in mid-May, the order kept Huawei — a leading tech innovator — out of America’s digital networks. At the same time, the Commerce Department effectively banned U.S. companies from selling components to us.

     

    This one-two punch is a challenge for Huawei, headquartered in Shenzhen, China, since we source about a third of our products from the United States. Some have wondered if we can survive this crisis and continue honoring our commitments to customers.

     

    The answer is yes. Huawei pays particular care to supply continuity. We have spent over a dozen years establishing systems and developing key technologies for different types of supply emergencies. Our supply chain is an open system, which means we source our key components from different channels, sources and countries. These measures will keep our business running despite the challenges we currently face.

     

    In striking out at Huawei, the United States will inflict considerable damage on itself. The actions against Huawei alone will seriously hurt U.S. companies, which sold more than $10 billion in goods and services to Huawei last year. The blacklisting of Huawei could wipe out that business. The resulting drop in revenue may force U.S. companies to cut research-and-development spending, threatening their ability to innovate.

     

    The Trump administration’s actions also threaten to split digital technology into separate fiefdoms or tribes. In a divided world, conflicting or incompatible standards may prevent companies from using digital technology on a global scale, an obstacle that relegates them to the status of regional enterprises. And in markets where technology leaders are kept out for political reasons, competition will be reduced, raising costs and leading businesses to curtail their investments. In such markets there will be less innovation overall; companies will produce inferior products, while charging higher prices.

     

    Most troubling is how the U.S. attacks on Huawei will severely damage the global trading system. Over the last 70 years, free trade and open markets have helped create prosperity and relative peace. Yet the current U.S. administration seems to believe international trade should be controlled by government decrees rather than market forces.

    Washington says it was motivated to take action because Chinese tech companies threatened U.S. national security or foreign policy interests. But trying to protect communications networks by blacklisting companies is naive. Global supply chains mean that those with criminal intent and the right skills can compromise the equipment of any company or country. Securing digital networks requires a coordinated international response — an outcome that the Trump administration’s actions have yet to produce.

     

    The U.S. government’s actions will inflict short-term pain on the telecommunications and technology industries. Even so, I do not believe the digital world will be split into two camps as a result. A top-down ban will ultimately be rescinded by a bottom-up force: the will of the American business community. Industry groups are already speaking out against the Huawei ban and companies are seeking to be exempted from it. The more U.S. businesses stand to lose, the stronger the resistance will grow.

     

    Outside the U.S., the ban will further damage America’s long-standing credibility as a global leader. Trump’s inconsistent remarks have blurred the line between politics and national security, and other countries will not risk becoming technological laggards simply to follow America’s lead. That’s why some countries, including the United Kingdom, have adopted a cybersecurity model that relies on independent verification of Huawei’s technology. This has allowed the UK to be among the first to roll out a 5G network.

     

    History shows that attempts to contravene open markets and free trade tend to produce weaker, more vulnerable economies. Similarly, previous generations of wireless communications (2G, 3G and 4G) were hamstrung by conflicting technical standards, making the technology more expensive and preventing its use across all markets.

     

    In contrast, 5G creates a universal standard — the natural result of technological evolution and market demand. Some politicians, overestimating their power, may try to erect walls against cooperation, openness and progress. Ultimately, however, they will find that walls can be toppled just as quickly as they are built.

  • 全部评论
  • 萝卜操淡心
    分: 1845
    文明分 : 86
    萝卜操淡心 发表于 2019-06-28 16:11:55
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    “左右开攻”?应该是“左右开弓”。
     
    我也来说两句......
  • 岁月燃情
    分: 1827
    文明分 : 81
    岁月燃情 发表于 2019-06-29 08:40:57
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    左右开攻?错别字吧?

     

     
    我也来说两句......
  • 燕子李三
    分: 864
    文明分 : 81
    燕子李三 发表于 2019-06-29 16:09:10
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    不理解为什么要求美国发表这样的文章。个人感觉会进一步激化矛盾啊?(就像跟美国佬说:制裁又怎么样?你瞧,我好着呢!)
    • 回复 公共及政府事务部   楼主   2019-06-29 17:47

      洛杉矶时报是面向全球发行的媒体,不仅仅是面向美国的政客~
      适当传递正面信息,是有利于增强客户、消费者信心的呦~

    • 回复 红太阳怎样升起的 2019-07-02 20:59

      洛杉矶时报对西海岸科技公司的影响可能更大些

     
    我也来说两句......
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